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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."